Separate recurring revenue movements
Track starting MRR, new, expansion, contraction, churn, and ending MRR separately. A single growth percentage hides the operating levers.
Connect recurring revenue, churn, gross margin, hiring, operating expense, and cash in one driver-based forecast.
Driver assumptions
Month 12 MRR
$95,924
Month 12 net cash
$13,739
Ending cash
$476,108
| Month | Ending MRR | Gross profit | Net cash | Ending cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $54,500 | $43,600 | -$19,400 | $480,600 |
| 2 | $58,865 | $47,092 | -$15,908 | $464,692 |
| 3 | $63,099 | $50,479 | -$12,521 | $452,171 |
| 4 | $67,206 | $53,765 | -$9,235 | $442,936 |
| 5 | $71,190 | $56,952 | -$6,048 | $436,888 |
| 6 | $75,054 | $60,043 | -$2,957 | $433,931 |
| 7 | $78,803 | $63,042 | $42 | $433,973 |
| 8 | $82,438 | $65,951 | $2,951 | $436,924 |
| 9 | $85,965 | $68,772 | $5,772 | $442,697 |
| 10 | $89,386 | $71,509 | $8,509 | $451,206 |
| 11 | $92,705 | $74,164 | $11,164 | $462,369 |
| 12 | $95,924 | $76,739 | $13,739 | $476,108 |
How to use the result
The model should explain which assumptions changed, what happened to cash, and which decision follows. Keep the first version simple enough to maintain.
Track starting MRR, new, expansion, contraction, churn, and ending MRR separately. A single growth percentage hides the operating levers.
Distinguish cost of service from product, sales, marketing, and general administration so gross margin and operating leverage remain visible.
Use role, start month, cash compensation, benefits, recruiting, and equipment assumptions rather than spreading headcount cost evenly.
Start with the layer you can maintain, then add detail only when it changes a decision.
| Layer | Core drivers | Question answered | Next control |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Starting MRR, new MRR, churn | How does recurring revenue move? | Cohort and pipeline support |
| Gross profit | Hosting, support, service delivery | Does revenue create contribution? | Vendor and staffing drivers |
| Operating plan | Payroll and nonpayroll expense | When does the model approach scale? | Department owners and hiring dates |
| Cash | Opening cash and monthly net movement | What is the runway and low point? | Collections, financing, and scenarios |
| Actual vs forecast | Closed-month results and variance | Which assumption was wrong? | Monthly reforecast meeting |
Take the working file with you
The CSV includes a 12-month driver forecast, scenario columns, hiring plan, cash bridge, KPI definitions, and monthly variance prompts.
At minimum include recurring revenue movements, gross margin, payroll, operating expenses, capital or financing activity, opening cash, monthly net cash movement, and actual-versus-forecast review.
Choose a clearly defined revenue or customer churn measure, state the timing convention, and keep it consistent. More mature models can add cohorts, contraction, expansion, and segment assumptions.
It is a management forecast. Reconcile the starting point and actual months to dependable accounting records, but preserve enough operating detail to explain the drivers.
Update actual results after each close and revise forward assumptions when management decisions or evidence change. Keep an original plan or prior forecast for variance analysis.
This page is a free modeling resource. Taxstra can discuss broader CFO and financial-modeling needs, but the engagement fit depends on the company and requested scope.